Top 10 Markets for Multifamily Investment 2H 2023

The metroplex once again dominates the list of top markets, excelling in almost all of our major subindexes, especially Labor Market Durability. Dallas-Fort Worth is an economic powerhouse, thanks in no small part to its broadly diverse job market. Critical employment clusters here include FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) and TAMI (technology, advertising, media, information). We have identified these as ideal employment clusters because they generally garner higher incomes and tend to attract young adult professionals (i.e., prime renters).

DFW and the other Texas markets benefit from Texas’ business-friendly policies, which help encourage businesses to put down roots in the metroplex. In June, for instance, Canadian Solar Inc. announced they’d open a new production facility in Mesquite, which is expected to create about 1,500 skilled jobs.

CONTI Index Highlight: Within the Labor Market Durability subindex, Dallas claims an especially strong Supersector Correlation score. This indicator speaks to the prevalence of employment sectors that bear a close relationship with apartment demand, including health and education and professional and business services. Notably, Dallas features a high concentration of office-using employment, which is beneficial because office jobs generally pay well relative to non-office employment.¹ Over the past three years, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex enjoyed the second-strongest growth in office-using jobs across the 50 major U.S. markets we track.

Star Zip Code: 75039, Las Colinas
The community of Las Colinas, which falls within the city of Irving, has a high percentage of residents between the ages of 20 and 34, which corresponds with a typical renter profile. Las Colinas is home to a concentration of corporate headquarters, which helps attract professionals to the area. According to June 2023 data from Markerr, nearly three-fourths of residents here have at least a bachelor’s degree, which is double the proportion for the DFW metro overall.

Austin’s high desirability as a place to work and live has catalyzed a full apartment supply pipeline, and media reports tend to fixate on the construction rather than the cause. Austin enjoys enduring demand drivers including its rich cultural scene and its thriving job market, which is itself buoyed by a superstar tech cluster. It’s no fluke that industry giants like Tesla, Oracle, Google, and Apple have major corporate campuses here.

CONTI Index Highlight: Austin performs particularly well in the Quality of Life and Demographic Destiny subindexes, especially within educational attainment. According to data derived from the CONTI Index, 45% of residents hold at least a bachelor’s degree, and that number has grown three percentage points in the past three years – one of the highest educational growth rates in the 50 markets we track. A higher concentration of college-educated residents suggests greater income potential in a given area, which in turn supports rent growth.

It certainly helps that The University of Texas is located here, creating a pipeline of educated, skilled workers for businesses to draw from. UT is recognized as one of the best public colleges in the U.S. and a significant proportion of students graduate with degrees in engineering, biomedical sciences, and business.

Star Zip Code: 78704, South Central Austin
Several well-known Austin spots are located within this zip code, including Zilker Park, Barton Springs and the popular restaurant and retail drag of South Congress. It’s a short drive from UT, making it a good spot for students, and it’s just across the river from Austin’s central business district, making it a prime spot for professionals. Demographics in this area are very favorable to rentership, according to the CONTI Index, with more than half of residents aged 20 to 34. We find it promising for a Class A apartment strategy that prime renters here generally earn very solid wages – millennial residents make upwards of $150,000 gross income, according to Markerr data, as of July 2023.

Charlotte achieves high scores in the CONTI Index subcategories of Demographic Destiny, Labor Market Durability, and Quality of Life/Fiscal Health. This metro supports a flourishing financial technology (FinTech) sector, with companies like Cash App, MetLife, Truist and TransUnion operating here. Not to mention, large banks like Bank of America and Wells Fargo are headquartered here. The FinTech sector combines the rapid growth of tech with the stability of finance, and FinTech jobs tend to pay upwards of six-figure salaries, offering workers some fiscal cushion during periods of rent growth.

CONTI Index Highlight: Charlotte’s population is swelling, as this market benefits from a high rate of net migration. A CONTI Capital analysis of Census data found that Charlotte experienced a net gain of 31,400 residents between 2022 and 2023. This net gain is not only a positive sign for current and future apartment demand, but also serves as a vote of confidence by thousands of transplants per year. Many of these transplants fall within our measure of prime renters (20 to 34 years old). Not only is the increase of new residents large in sheer numbers, but over the past five years, net migration to Charlotte accounted for 6.3% of that market’s total population, which places Charlotte in the top 5 markets along this metric.

Charlotte’s robust FinTech sector probably has something to do with this migration growth, but it can’t hurt that the metro also performs well on CONTI Index measures of fiscal health. We track how well local governments are staying on top of their budgets because it gives municipalities greater runway to make long-term investments in the metro’s productive capacity, with probable positive spillovers to multifamily investments.

Star Zip Code: 28202, Uptown Charlotte
Uptown is divided into four historic wards, and each ward has its own character, giving transplants plenty to choose from in terms of amenities and living situations. Demographics within this central business district are very strong, with a population that skews younger and more educated than the metro in general. This zip code features a high degree of rentership compared to the Charlotte metro, befitting Uptown Charlotte’s urban character.

Atlanta earns a stellar CONTI Index score in the Demographic Destiny subindex. The metro benefits from a high concentration of young adults, partly due to the presence of several large educational institutions. Emory University operates a large business school in the metro, and the Georgia Institute of Technology and Georgia State University are constantly producing brand-new skilled workers.

Atlanta’s businesses benefit not only from an educated and skilled workforce, but from a low corporate tax rate and the well-connected Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. Solid job growth has occurred in office-using industries such as finance, professional services, and tech, and the metro has managed to attract major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Cisco, and Honeywell.

CONTI Index Highlight: Not only does Atlanta currently boast 1.3 million prime renters (aged 20 to 34), but growth for this segment of the population is forecasted to grow by approximately 12,100 additional prime renters by mid-2024. This is the second-highest projected increase across the top markets, behind only NYC, which is over twice the size of Atlanta’s total population. It helps that Atlanta is a major college town, and its relative affordability and diverse job growth also likely attracts younger residents.

Star Zip Code: 30307, Eastside Atlanta
Sitting a short distance east of Atlanta’s central business district, this zip code reaches the south side of the Emory University Campus and contains both Emory University Hospital and Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta – Egleston Hospital. Employment prospects in this zip code are strong, since the hospitals and university create jobs in the scientific and healthcare realms. The population here has increased 3.1% over the last three years, compared with 1.3% for the Atlanta metro, according to Markerr data as of July 2023.

Houston has historically been unfairly dismissed by some multifamily market participants due to the heavy prevalence of the traditionally volatile oil and gas industry. However, Houston’s job market has diversified remarkably over the past decade. From January 2000 to January 2023, professional and business services have made a 3 percentage point gain in labor market share, which is immense, considering the overall size of Houston’s job market. Even just over the year ending in 2Q 2023, Houston made big gains in professional and business services employment, as well as education and health services, according to a CONTI Capital analysis of BLS data. In fact, Houston featured the fourth-highest employment gain through 2Q out of the largest metro areas tracked by CONTI. Houston contributes significantly to the U.S. GDP, making it a critical hub of commerce.

CONTI Index Highlight: Houston scores well on our Demographic Destiny subindex, as the fifth-most populous metro in the U.S. The Houston metro also carries a hefty millennial population.

Houston performs uniquely well in household formations. This refers to the rate at which individuals transition into becoming heads of their own households – such as when they move out of their parents’ homes, choose to live on their own instead of with roommates, or when they start their own families. This measure is significant to our understanding of housing demand because a high household formation rate, like what we see in Houston, can be an indicator of robust housing demand as people navigate these significant life changes. Over the past 3 years, Houston has garnered 69,200 formations per year, on average, making it our top market for both the number and rate of households formed each year.

Our forecasting for continued household formation in this metro looks rosy over the next year, with roughly 36,000 new households anticipated.

Star Zip Code: 77019, Neartown/River Oaks
These two neighborhoods have their own favorable characteristics – incomes skew higher on the River Oaks side, while residents skew younger on the Neartown side, per the CONTI Index. Like most of our other star zip codes, residents here are more educated than the metro average. Remarkably, more than 34% of residents in this area have an advanced degree, compared to nearly 12% at the metro level according to Markerr data as of July 2023. Many residents in this area work in education, science, and healthcare, all of which show favorable correlations with apartment demand.

This northwestern market outperforms on almost all of our preferred indicators of multifamily performance, though it achieves top marks for its demographics, housing supply metrics, and quality of life. Seattle’s beautiful natural surroundings, along with its thriving music and arts scene, have probably contributed to the steady inward migration to the metro. A strong core of residents within our “prime renter” demographic live here. But Seattle’s popularity has also contributed to its high housing costs, making apartment demand all the more competitive.

CONTI Index Highlight: Within our measures of housing supply and affordability, single-family permitting trends in this market are highly favorable to multifamily. We track single-family metrics because it is a part of the competitive landscape for multifamily. There is simply not enough single-family housing being built in the Seattle metro, as new single-family permits are remarkably low as a percentage of the existing housing inventory. Within our data, we can observe a considerable slowdown in permitting – as of mid-year 2023, single-family permitting in Seattle is 30% lower than its average pace over the past five years. Only four other markets had a lower rate of permitting momentum during this same period. We can also compare permits to the number of jobs being created to see that the demand for single-family homes isn’t being met by a longshot.

Seattle’s mortgage-to-rent ratio is also beneficial to multifamily demand, as it is much more financially feasible to rent here than it is to pay a mortgage on a home. The monthly mortgage cost is a staggering 2.6 times higher than average monthly rents. The lopsided ratio is unsurprising given the undersupply of single-family homes.

Star Zip Code: 98006, Bellevue
The city of Bellevue is known for its excellent schools, which we like to see because good schools add to the quality of life and desirability of a location. The residents of this mostly suburban zip code skew older than many of the zip codes on this list, but residents here are highly educated and very well compensated. Millennials here make $238,000 on average, according to July 2023 Markerr data, compared to $149,000 for the Seattle metro area. It’s also notable that supply barriers here are high, according to 2023 rankings by Green Street Advisors, and rentals are somewhat limited in availability.

Nashville enjoys a top-tier labor market which is well-diversified, supporting clusters of industries like education, finance, technology, and leisure and hospitality. We like to see this sort of industrial diversity because it tends to spread out employment risk during economic downturns.

CONTI Index Highlight: Nashville is truly a standout in the Quality-of-Life subindex, thanks in large part to their arts and entertainment spend per capita. One of the ways in which we measure something as subjective as “quality of life” is by quantifying how much is spent per person on entertainment and the arts in any given metro. Nashville, also referred to as the City of Music, stakes its reputation on the musical arts, so it isn’t terribly surprising that this metro nabs the highest score on their arts spend per capita out of the 50 metros we track, including major entertainment hubs like New York City, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles.

Star Zip Code: 37209, West Nashville
Residents of this zip code are just a short distance from popular eateries, music venues, and community gathering spots in Nashville, including Centennial Park. Half of the residents of this area fall between 20 and 34 years old – a favorably high presence of prime renters. Additionally, a greater concentration of workers in the professional, scientific, technical services, and healthcare industries are employed here than across the metro, which is also beneficial to multifamily.

Denver’s reputation as an outdoorsman’s paradise is well known, so it’s perhaps unsurprising that this market has such a favorable demographic profile. 23% of residents in Denver fall within our prime renter demographic. It probably helps that Denver is home to employment clusters like aviation and biotechnology (and it can’t hurt that the metro is renowned for its brewery scene), but more than that, Denver scores highly on our Quality of Life subindex. This desirability has translated into high competition for housing, which we see in the expensive single-family housing market.

CONTI Index Highlight: Within the Quality of Life and Fiscal Health subindex, Denver is our #1 market for exercise. Residents of Denver have famously beautiful landscape in their backyard with miles and miles of space to boulder, hike, and mountain bike. According to the American College of Sports Medicine, Denver once again made the top 10 fittest cities in the U.S. in 2023. This contributes positively to the health and wellbeing of renters in the metro, and also contributes positively to Denver’s desirability.

Star Zip Code: 80238, Central Park
Central Park is an up-and-coming area where we are seeing development progress, according to CONTI Index data. Residents here enjoy easy accessibility to Denver’s downtown area and the Denver International Airport. Households have grown by 41.8% over the past 3 years, according to Markerr, which is good news for rental demand. Household income in this zip code averages $150,000. Jobs here are varied across the professional, healthcare, technical services, and food and accommodation services industries, demonstrating the employment diversity we seek out when finding new investments.

While the first image many people likely associate with Las Vegas might be flashy casinos on the Las Vegas Strip, this desert city has drawn a steady stream of permanent residents, many of them moving out of California. In fact, Vegas’ population has grown by an astounding 16.5% in the last decade (2013 – 2023), far outstripping the national average of 5.7%, according to data from Oxford Economics. Similarly, BLS data shows that, over the same period, job growth in Las Vegas averaged 3.0%, surpassing the national job growth average of 1.9%.

As a tourist-focused market, Vegas’ recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic echoes a trend seen across the country – that is, the hospitality industry was hit hard during the peak of the pandemic, but hospitality jobs rebounded rather well. At the same time, this market is bolstered by solid growth in office-using employment, according to the CONTI Index.

CONTI Index Highlight: Las Vegas outperforms within the Multifamily Risk and Reward subindex, specifically in pure revenue growth. Thanks in part to the metro’s job market drivers, our long-term projections for occupancy and rent growth match our ideal market growth profile. Las Vegas has one of the best forecasts for the next 1, 3, and 5 years, though we are most confident in the metro’s long-term revenue growth performance through at least 2030.

Star Zip Code: 89135, Summerlin South
The suburban Summerlin South community captures more of the nuance of the market – rather than being dominated by casinos and hotels, this is an area where residents can raise families. The population growth in this zip code has outpaced that of the Las Vegas metro for the last several years, achieving 6% growth in the last three years. Though this zip code skews older than most of the zips on this list, the population segment of residents aged 20 to 34 has grown 2.1 percentage points over the last three years, per the CONTI Index.

This scenic metro boasts a booming labor market that experienced one of the fastest recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic, likely assisted by tax incentives that draw in businesses and a high concentration of tech workers. Companies like Adobe, Overstock.com, eBay, and Domo employ thousands of workers locally.

A large percentage of millennials live in this market, per the CONTI Index, perhaps drawn in by the plethora of outdoor activities available to them, not unlike Denver. Salt Lake City’s legacy of hosting the Olympic Winter Games in 2002 lends the city clout and draws tourist dollars from those who want to see and experience Utah Olympic Park.

CONTI Index Highlight: It can be a struggle to be a homeowner in Salt Lake City – wages aren’t at all keeping pace with the cost of single-family housing in the area, according to the CONTI Index. Salt Lake City’s mortgage-to-rent ratio leans heavily in favor of multifamily – the current monthly mortgage payment for the metro is $3,917, whereas the average monthly rent payment is $1,584. For the average renter, that’s a savings of $2,333 per month – practically a mortgage payment on its own.

Star Zip Code: 84095, South Jordan
South Jordan benefits from easy access to several parks and Oquirrh Lake, adding to the area’s quality of life. The South Jordan area has seen stronger population growth than the Salt Lake City metro as a whole – the population of this specific zip code has grown by 7.4% over the last three years, according to Markerr. This zip code has experienced 14.5% gross income growth over the last three years, and roughly 42% of residents here hold a bachelor’s degree or higher.